Promise To Be True - how far will she stay?

PROMISE TO BE TRUE (IRE) - 2014 bay filly

Promise To Be True has twice been a beaten favourite in Group 1 contests, first when only fifth to Intricately in the Moyglare Stud Stakes at the Curragh and then when third to Thunder Snow and South Seas in the Criterium International at Saint-Cloud.

That might sound like she has been a somewhat disappointing performer, but that would not be a fair assessment of this 112-rated classic prospect.

She started off her career in style, beating four rivals to take a seven and a half-furlong Tipperary maiden at the end of June and then following that with defeat of Take A Deep Breath in the Group 3 Silver Flash Stakes at Leopardstown.

Between the aforementioned defeats she was runner-up in the Group 1 Prix Marcel Boussac over a mile at Chantilly, beaten just three-parts of a length by Wuheida, the only time that she has not been favourite.

Promise To Be True is trained by Aidan O'Brien, she was bred by Orpendale, Chelston & Wynatt, and as one might expect of a daughter of Galileo (by Sadler's Wells), she represents a top classic family. It is also one that features a fascinating mix of speed and stamina.

She is one of three winners out of Sumora (by Danehill), a mare whose best win came in the Listed St Hugh's Stakes over five furlongs, and she is a full-sister to Maybe, Europe's juvenile filly champion of 2011.

Maybe also won the Group 3 Silver Flash Stakes, in her case after victory in the Listed Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot, and to those she added both the Group 2 Debutante Stakes and Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes. She was only third in the Group 1 1000 Guineas, behind runaway winner Homecoming Queen, and she was beaten by less than four lengths when fifth to Was in the Oaks.

Her dam's three-parts sister Dancing Rain (by Danehill Dancer) took both the Group 1 Oaks at Epsom and the Group 1 Preis der Diana (German Oaks) at Dusseldorf, a unique double, and then added the Group 2 Qipco British Champions Filles' and Mares' Stakes at Ascot.

Their dam, Rain Flower (by Indian Ridge), did not race but was always a candidate to produce one or more high-class offspring because she is out of Rose Of Jericho (by Alleged). That mare was also unraced, but in addition to being the dam of leading Irish sprinter Archway (by Thatching) and of high-class Japanese colt Shinko King (by Fairy King), she was responsible for Dr Devious (by Ahonoora).

He won the Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes and Group 3 Vintage Stakes as a juvenile before going on to take both the Group 1 Derby at Epsom and Group 1 Champion Stakes at Newmarket. Although never a major sire, his tally of stakes winners did include Group 1 scorers such as Collier Hill and Kinnaird, and he could be described as being a three-parts brother to Rain Flower.

If she has trained on from two to three then there is every reason to hope that Promise To Be True could become one of the top fillies of her age group. We already know that she stays a mile, and having done that at two suggests that she can handle 10 furlongs at three.

Whether or not she will manage the full Oaks distance, however, will depend on what she got from her dam: was it her sprinter's speed, or the family's middle-distance aptitude?